"Island power systems development with load management and energy efficiency programs"

The power systems of islands, especially of the Aegean Sea, are distinguished by their peculiarities, since they are currently autonomous, with the prospect that in the near future most of the islands will be interconnected with the mainland power system by shutting down the operation of oil power plants. However, the interconnection is not fully assured in terms of reliability, doubting whether it is ultimately possible to discontinue conventional units. While an additional issue is the penetration of renewable energy sources, due to the high wind potential and high solar radiation and the formulation of hybrid systems, even with the use of energy storage devices. However, despite the initial steps towards load management and energy efficiency measures by the PPC and the guidelines of the International Energy Agency, which took place twenty years ago, the corresponding interest in Greece has diminished over the last few years.
In this context, a holistic economic and technical study on the development of an island electricity system is being considered, taking into account not only the penetration of renewable sources, but also the possibility of utilizing load management, demand and energy efficiency programs. In particular, the load fluctuation of the autonomous islands over the years and its dependence on weather conditions (temperature, sunshine, wind) will be studied by applying statistical analysis and/ or pattern recognition methods. Furthermore, the effect of seasonal population changes on load demand will be studied, due to the increased tourist flows of these islands during the summer season. Afterwards, a relative load forecast will be conducted both in the short and long term, using regression models and/ or artificial intelligence. At the same time, there will be a systematic recording of electricity load management plans and the possibility of application to island electric power networks, as well as ways for their economic evaluation. Moreover, the economic planning of the development/ expansion of power stations will be analyzed, with or without renewable energy sources, with or without interconnection with the mainland system, with or without load management programs using appropriate optimization methods and taking into account the relevant loss of demand load and unserved energy reliability indices. In addition, the economic operation of each configured island electricity system will be performed for typical days of future years using appropriate optimization methods. The most appropriate development scenario of the island's electric power production system will be selected from the comparative study. This methodology will be applied to a number of islands of the Aegean Sea, in order to identify additional similarities and differences between them and the possibility of generalizing the relevant results.